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Home Prices Growing Slower; Declining in some Spots

by devteam February 11th, 2014 | Share

Homernprice movement was mixed across metropolitan areas (MSAs) in the fourth quarterrnof 2013 the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) said today.  Median prices rose in fewer markets than inrnthe third quarter although a number saw increases in double digits, and therernwere nearly four dozen areas where prices fell.</p

Pricesrnrose in 119 or 73 percent of the 164 MSAs tracked by NAR compared to in 88rnpercent in the third quarter.  Forty-twornof the areas or 26 percent (down from 33 percent the previous quarter) saw doublerndigit increases but prices declined in 43 markets and were unchanged in two. </p

LawrencernYun, NAR chief economist, said there are two ways of looking at the pricerngains. “The vast majority of homeowners have seen significant gains in equityrnover the past two years, which is helping the economy through increasedrnconsumer spending,” he said. “At the same time, home prices have been risingrnfaster than incomes, while mortgage interest rates are above the record lows ofrna year ago. This is beginning to hamper housing affordability.”</p

Thernnational median home price in the fourth quarter was $196,900, up 10.1 percentrnfrom $178,900 one year earlier.  Thernyear-over-year increase in Q3 was 12.5 percent. rnMedian prices in the five priciest housing markets were double to triple</bthe national median.  In the mostrnexpensive market, San Jose, the median existing single-family house price wasrn$775,000 followed by nearby San Francisco at $682,400.  In Honolulu the median was $670,800 followedrnby Anaheim-Santa Ana at $666,300 and San Diego at $476,800.</p

Atrnthe other end of the scale, Toledo had a median single-family home price ofrn$80,500; Rockford, Illinois, $81,400, and Cumberland, Maryland $89,500.  Elmira, New York was fourth lowest at $99,500rnand South Bend had a median price of $101,100.</p

Metrornarea condominium and cooperative prices – covering changes in 55 metro areas -rnshowed the national median existing-condo price was $197,200 in the fourthrnquarter, up 10.7 percent from the fourth quarter of 2012. Forty-four metrosrnshowed increases in their median condo price from a year ago, one was unchangedrnand 10 areas had declines.</p

Inventoriesrnof available homes for sale remain below historical levels.  At the end of the fourth quarter there werern1.86 million existing homes on the market, an estimated 4.9 month supply.  In the fourth quarter of 2012 the inventoryrncontained 1.83 million homes available, about a 4.8 month supply. NAR says arnsupply of 6.0 to 6.5 months represents a rough balance between buyers andrnsellers.</p

Yunrnsaid that tight supplies in many areas accounted for double-digit price growthrnand added, “New home construction activity needs to increase significantly inrnthe fast appreciating markets to help relieve upward price pressure.”   He noted that in 2013, housing starts totaledrn924,000, well below the historic average of 1.5 million units that typicallyrnare needed.</p

Totalrnexisting-home sales, including single-family and condo, fell 7.8rnpercent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.94 million in the fourthrnquarter from 5.36 million in the third quarter, but were 0.8 percent above thern4.90 million level during the fourth quarter of 2012. </p

NAR President Steve Brown saidrnconsumers need to keep in mind that all real estate is local. “The nationalrnfigures provide useful background, but it really gets down to supply and demandrnin a given neighborhood,” he said. “Metropolitan area figures are an excellentrngauge of local housing markets, but there can be widely ranging conditionsrnwithin a metro area. This is why it’s best to consult with a Realtor, who hasrnadditional resources and can provide much greater detail on specificrnlocations.”</p

Risingrnhome prices and interest rates are naturally affecting affordability and NAR’srnnational annual Housing Affordability Index fell to 175.8 in 2013 from a recordrnhigh 196.5 in 2012.  An index of 100 isrndefined as the point where a median-income household has exactly enough incomernto qualify for the purchase of a median-priced existing single-family home,rnassuming a 20 percent downpayment and 25 percent of gross income devoted tornmortgage principal and interest payments.</p

Metrornareas with the greatest housing affordability conditions in 2013 includernToledo, Ohio, with an index of 395.4; Rockford, Ill., at 374.5; Decatur, Ill.,rn343.7; Lansing-East Lansing, Mich., 331.4; and Springfield, Ill., at 327.8.rn</p

Regionally,rntotal existing-home sales in the Northeast declined 7.1 percent in the fourthrnquarter, but are 7.1 percent above the fourth quarter of 2012. The medianrnexisting single-family home price in the Northeast was $241,000 in the fourthrnquarter, up 5.5 percent to from a year ago.</p

Inrnthe Midwest, existing-home sales fell 9.1 percent in the fourth quarter, butrnare 2.0 percent higher than a year ago. The median home price increased 7.0rnpercent to $152,400 in the fourth quarter from the same quarter a year ago.</p

Salesrnin the South declined 4.4 percent in the fourth quarter, but are 3.6 percentrnabove the fourth quarter of 2012. The median price was $173,000 in the fourthrnquarter, an 8.3 percent year-over-year increase. </p

Inrnthe West existing-home sales dropped 12.7 percent in the fourth quarter, andrnare 8.1 percent below a year ago. With notable inventory restrictions, thernmedian existing single-family home price in the West jumped 15.5 percent torn$286,200 in the fourth quarter from the fourth quarter of 2012.

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About the Author

devteam

Steven A Feinberg (@CPAsteve) of Appletree Business Services LLC, is a PASBA member accountant located in Londonderry, New Hampshire.

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