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Home Prices will Continue Annual Winning Streak

by devteam January 6th, 2015 | Share

Home pricesrnare projected to finish out the year with a downtick although prices willrnstill be significantly higher than at the same point in 2013.  CoreLogic said today that home prices inrnNovember were 0.1 percent higher than in October but are expected to decline byrnthat same amount in December.</p

In additionrnto posting a small month-over-month increase CoreLogic’s Home Price Index (HPI)rnincluding distressed sales (lender-owned property or REO and short sales) wasrnup 5.5 percent compared to November 2013. rnNovember was the 33rd consecutive month that home prices havernincreased nationally on an annual basis.</p

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All 50 states</band the District of Columbia posted year-over-year increases in November whenrndistressed sales are included in the equation.  Thernfive states with the highest home price appreciation were: Michigan (+9.0rnpercent), Colorado (+8.8 percent), Texas (+8.5 percent), North Dakota (+7.9rnpercent) and Nevada (+7.9 percent).   rn</p

Including distressed transactions, thernpeak-to-current change in the national HPI (from April 2006 to November 2014)rnwas -12.9 percent but 29 states are atrnor within 10 percent of their pre-crash price peaks and seven have set newrnhigh-water markets.  States with newrnprice peaks are Colorado, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee,rnTexas, and Wyoming. </p

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Every staternand the District also saw year-over-year price increases on the CoreLogic HPIrnthat excludes distressed sales.  Thatrnindex rose nationally by 5.3 percent from November 2013 to November 2014 andrnwas up 0.3 percent on a monthly basis.  Excluding distressed sales, the fivernstates with the highest home price appreciation were: Massachusetts (+8.6rnpercent), Texas (+7.9 percent), Colorado (+7.8 percent), North Dakota (+7.8rnpercent) and South Dakota (+7.5 percent). rn/the peak-to-current change in the HPI excluding distressed sales wasrn-9.2 percent.</p

CoreLogicrnprojects that while its HPI that includes distressed sales will fall slightlyrnin December it will maintain the long-running year-over-year gains, rising 4.6rnpercent from November 2014 to November 2015. rnThe HPI excluding distressed sales will also decrease by 0.1 percent inrnDecember but will increase by 4.2 percent by November of this year.  ThernCoreLogic HPI Forecast is a monthly projection of home prices using thernCoreLogic HPI and other economic variables. Values are derived from state-levelrnforecasts by weighting indices according to the number of owner-occupiedrnhouseholds for each state.</p

Ninety-six of the top 100 Core BasedrnStatistical Areas (CBSAs) measured by population showed year-over-yearrnincreases in November 2014.The four CBSAs that showed year-over-year declinesrnwere: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, Md.; Camden, N.J.; Greensboro-High Point,rnN.C.; and Winston-Salem, N.C.</p

“After decelerating for most ofrnthe year, home price growth has been holding firm between a 5-percent andrn6-percent growth rate for the last four months,” Sam Khater, deputy chiefrneconomist at CoreLogic said. “However, pockets of weakness are clear inrnBaltimore and Washington D.C., and three of the top four states with thernhighest price appreciation are energy intensive and had been benefitting fromrnthe energy boom which is currently receding as oil prices trend downward. Thesernstates-Texas, Colorado and North Dakota, may see some downward pressure onrnprices in 2015.”</p

“The pace of home price gains havernslowed as we exit 2014 but this is probably only a temporary lull,” saidrnAnand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “While the CoreLogicrnHPI Forecast shows a slight dip in prices next month, we believe that pricesrnwill be up a year from now as continued economic growth fuels buyer confidencernand their willingness to purchase a home and invest in their future.”

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About the Author

devteam

Steven A Feinberg (@CPAsteve) of Appletree Business Services LLC, is a PASBA member accountant located in Londonderry, New Hampshire.

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