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Housing Market Improving at Slower Pace, but There's a Catch

by devteam April 24th, 2014 | Share

The February edition of the new<bMulti-Indicator Market Index (MiMi) introduced by Freddie Mac last month indicatesrnthat the U.S. housing market overall is recovering at a slightly slower pace</bthan it was in January.  Nonetheless, thernreport shows that more than half of both the states and the top 50 metropolitanrnareas are still improving.  </p

MiMi uses proprietary Freddie Mac datarnand information on local markets to assess where each market currently is inrnrelation to its own long-term stable range for home purchase applications,rnpayment-to-income ratios (whichrnallows measurement of changes in home purchasing power), proportion ofrnon-time mortgage payments, and the local employment picture. And that’s the catch: an index that ostensibly speaks to “the housing market” is currently drawing strength from employment and delinquency rates as opposed to more focused housing metrics like applications and sales.</p

In February the national MiMi was -3.11rnpoints which indicates a weak housing market overall and was 0.03 points belowrnthe January MiMi.  However, the number wasrn0.67 point higher than in February 2013 and the 3-month trend was +0.12 showingrnan improving housing market.  The all-timernlow MiMi was -4.49 in November 2010 when the housing market was at itsrnweakest.  </p

Eleven states and the District ofrnColumbia were in their stable range of housing activity, the same number as inrnJanuary and up from seven plus the District one year ago.  Four metro areas, three of them in Texas, arernconsidered stable and in range where no areas were considered so in Februaryrn2013.   Among the states performing the best are NorthrnDakota, Wyoming, DC, Alaska, and Louisiana. </p

Twenty-eight states and the District arernconsidered to be improving based on their three-month trend as are 27 of the 50rnmetro areas.  The most improved statesrnwere South Carolina, Louisiana, and Ohio while the most improving metro areas includernCharlotte, Columbus, and Nashville.   Kansas City, St. Louis, and Minneapolis lostrnground in their three-month trend after declines in purchase applicationrnactivity and local employment data.</p

Freddie Mac Chief Economist FrankrnNothaft said, “Despite a slowdown over the winter months, the housingrnmarket continues to show improvement in most states, although at a somewhatrnslower pace. And while not all the MiMi indicators are trending in a betterrndirection — in particular, home-purchase applications have weakened in manyrnareas — gains in local employment and loan performance have really helped many markets across the country, especially those that were hardest hit.  Outside of these areas we are also seeing positive improvement from the Carolinas and Tennessee as their local unemployment rates fall further.” 

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About the Author

devteam

Steven A Feinberg (@CPAsteve) of Appletree Business Services LLC, is a PASBA member accountant located in Londonderry, New Hampshire.

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