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Millennials may be Homebuying Generation After all

by devteam September 27th, 2014 | Share

Study after study has shown thatrnMillennials – that generation of Americans currently between the ages of 18 andrn34 – are becoming homeowners at rates way below that of earlier generations atrnthe same age.  Now Zillow has released arnsurvey showing that, while they might not be buying, Millennials would definitelyrnlike to do so. </p

This was one finding of the most recent U.S. HousingrnConfidence Survey conducted by Pulsenomics LLC.  The most recent survey was conducted in Julyrnand the resulting Zillow Housing Confidence Index (ZHCI) rose to 64.2, from 63.7 in thernprior survey in January. Housingrnconfidence increased among residents of 11 of the 20 major metro areasrnsurveyed.</p

The ZCHI is composed of three sub-indices: </p<ul type="disc"

  • The Housing Market Conditions Index (HMCI), which measures prevailing market trends andrn buying/selling conditions. </li
  • The Housing Expectations Index (HEI), measuring expected changes in home values, homern affordability and the value of homeownership. </li
  • The Homeownership Aspirations Index (HAI), which measures household home-buying plans andrn attitudes toward the social value of homeownership.</li</ul

    The headline index and the threernsub-indices are measured on a 0 to 100 scale, with readings above 50 indicatingrnpositive sentiment.   The survey consistsrnof more than 10,000 completed household interviews with adult landline andrncellphone users nationwide. The ZHCI and all sub-indices are also analyzed by tenure,rnto enable measurement and comparison of housing sentiment by homeowners andrnrenters.</p

    Overall, housing confidence isrnhigher among homeowners than renters, likely owing to historically high rentsrnand favorable home buying conditions, but younger renters are more upbeat aboutrntheir future home-buying prospects than their elders. Among millennial rentersrn82 percent said they were confident or somewhat confident that they will bernable to afford to own a home someday, compared to 64 percent of Generation Xrnrenters (those aged 35-49) and just 48 percent of Baby Boomer renters (agedrn50-64). Millennials overall were also far more optimistic about future homernvalue appreciation. One-third of millennials (33 percent) said they expectedrnhome values to rise more than 6 percent per year over the next decade, comparedrnto 21 percent of Generation X and just 15 percent of Baby Boomers.</p

    “It’s heartening to see youngerrnrenters express so much confidence in their ability to buy a home in comingrnyears, because today’s renters by necessity are tomorrow’s buyers,” saidrnZillow Chief Economist Dr. Stan Humphries. “Cynics might argue that thesernresults represent no more than youthful exuberance, or perhaps some naiveté,rnbut that’s missing the point. We need this generation to be confident andrnwanting to buy, regardless of the difficulties they face. And there arerndifficulties, including saving for down payments in the face of high rents andrnhigh student debt burdens, uncertain job prospects among younger workers andrnlimited entry-level home inventory. But optimism is a necessary first step, andrnindicates a desire among a very creative generation to find creative solutionsrnthat will enable them to achieve homeownership.”</p

    SanrnFrancisco, Seattle and San Jose residents expressed the most confidence in thernhousing market. Residents of Philadelphia, Chicago and St. Louis expressed thernlowest level of confidence.</p

    Zillow said that in some respects,rnmillennials may have more conventional views about housing than olderrngenerations. Almost two-thirds (65 percent) agreed with the statement thatrnowning a home is necessary to living the “good life” and is centralrnto the American dream, compared to 56 percent of Generation X and 55 percent ofrnBaby Boomers. Roughly 46 percent of millennials agreed that owning a home isrnnecessary to be a respected member of society, compared to 38 percent ofrnGeneration X and 30 percent of Baby Boomers.</p

    Both the HMCI and HAI rose in thernmost recent survey, to 62.1 and 62.7, from 60 and 62.4 in January.  The HEI fell from 66.3 in January, to 66.1rnwhich puts consumers’ expectations for more modest home value growth goingrnforward are in line with Zillow’s predictions. rnThe Zillow Home Value Forecastiii predicts home value growthrnof 3.1 percent through next August, down from 6.6 percent over the past year.</p

    “Although strong aspirationsrnare no substitute for financial capacity or creditworthiness on a mortgage loanrnapplication, this feedback from millennial renters is significant because itrnconfirms that they bear relatively few psychological scars from the housingrnbust, and because the attitudes of this generation will drive housing trends inrnthe decades to come,” said Pulsenomics Founder Terry Loebs.rn”Regarding the outlook of renters across all generations, in 14 of the 20rnmajor metro areas in which we conduct our research, a majority of renterrnhouseholds don’t believe that right now is a good time to buy a home. However,rna larger, two-thirds majority of these 3,764 renter households said that owningrna home someday is a specific goal that they are determined to reach, orrnsomething that they think about a lot.”

    All Content Copyright © 2003 – 2009 Brown House Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.nReproduction in any form without permission of MortgageNewsDaily.com is prohibited.

  • About the Author

    devteam

    Steven A Feinberg (@CPAsteve) of Appletree Business Services LLC, is a PASBA member accountant located in Londonderry, New Hampshire.

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