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Mortgage Delinquencies Below 4% For First Time in 6 Years

by devteam February 13th, 2014 | Share

For the first time in six years the mortgagerndelinquency rate has dropped below 4 percent TransUnion said on Wednesday.  Nationally, 3.85 percent of mortgages werernpast due for 60 days or more in the fourth quarter of 2013, a 5.9 percentrndecline from 4.09 percent in the third quarter. rnThe fourth quarter rate was down more than 24 percent from the rate onernyear earlier of 5.08 percent and it was eighth consecutive quarter the rate hadrndeclined on a year-over-year basis.</p

Every state and the District of Columbia saw anrnannual decrease in its delinquency rate in the fourth quarter.  In all but two, New Jersey and New York wherernrates fell by 9.7 and 8.5 percent respectively, those declines were in doublerndigits.  The largest percentage drops werernin Arizona where the delinquency rate fell from 5.11 percent to 3.14 percentrn(-38.6 percent) and California from 4.92 percent to 3.06 percent (-37.8rnpercent).  Nevada delinquencies remain wellrnabove the national average but the state posted the third largest annual netrnchange, -34.7 percent, as its rate fell from 9.98 percent to 6.52 percent. </p

“It’s encouraging to see thernmortgage delinquency rate drop for two consecutive years, but at the same time,rnmortgage delinquencies continue to be twice as high as levels observed prior tornthe housing bubble,” said Steve Chaouki, head of financial services forrnTransUnion. “The housing market also still shows some volatility,rnwith both housing prices and originations dropping in the latter part of 2013rnafter experiencing improvements in the first part of the year.” </p

The number of active mortgage</baccounts in TransUnion's data base continued to shrink in 2013, from a recordedrn53.85 million mortgage accounts in the fourth quarter of 2012 to 52.84 million accountsrnat the end of 2013.  There are more thanrn10 million fewer accounts than in the fourth quarter of 2008 – 62.85 million.</p

“New account originations haverndeclined significantly in recent quarters,” said Chaouki. “This isrnprimarily related to recent spikes in interest rates, particularly in thernrefinance market. Additionally, continuing tight lending standards remain arnfactor in some sectors of the market.”</p

Viewed one quarter in arrears (tornensure all accounts are included in the data), new account originations droppedrnfrom 2.29 million in Q3 2012 to 1.95 million in Q3 2013. Interestingly,rnthe non-prime population (those consumers with a TransUnion proprietary creditrnscore below 700) did see an increase in their share of originations, risingrnfrom 5.55% in Q3 2012 to 6.61% in Q3 2013. rnStill, non-prime account originations remain well below those observedrnjust six years ago (16.26% in Q3 2007). </p

The company expects delinquencies torncontinue downward into the first quarter of 2014, with the 60 day rate reachingrn3.70 percent by the end of this quarter.  “Mortgage loans originated inrnthe last few years have significantly higher credit quality than thosernoriginated prior to the recession, with delinquency rates that resemble thosernseen seven to 10 years ago,” said Chaouki. “As older mortgagesrncontinue to slowly exit the system, the industry will experience continuedrndeclines in mortgage overall delinquencies.”

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About the Author

devteam

Steven A Feinberg (@CPAsteve) of Appletree Business Services LLC, is a PASBA member accountant located in Londonderry, New Hampshire.

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