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Rising Employment, Declining Delinquencies Fail to Buoy Housing

by devteam June 25th, 2014 | Share

Freddie Mac said today that the U.S.rnhousing market is sending mixed signals. rnMost markets, according to the company’s Multi-Indicator Market Indexrn(MiMi) remain weak even though mortgage delinquencies are declining and local employmentrnis improving.  House price gains andrnattractive mortgage rates are also apparently not motivating buyers.</p

The national MiMi value stands atrn-3.01 points, improving only 0.05 point from March to April.  The three month trend was an increase of 0.07rnpoints, considered flat.  However, on arnyear-over-year basis, the MiMi improved by 0.65 points. </p

MiMi is designed to monitor andrnmeasure the stability of the housing market nationally and in the states and 50rntop metro markets relative to the long-term stable range in each.  The index combines proprietary Freddie Macrndata with current local market data on home purchase applications,rnpayment-to-income ratios (changes in home purchasing power based on housernprices, mortgage rates and household income), proportion of on-time mortgage paymentsrnand the local employment picture.  Therndata is used to produce a composite number for each locality.   MiMirnalso indicates whether each market is trending closer to, or further away fromrnits stable range.  The nation’s all-timernMiMi low of -4.49 was in November 2010 when the housing market was at itsrnweakest. </p

Ten states and the District ofrnColumbia are in their stable range with North Dakota, Wyoming, the District ofrnColumbia, Louisiana and Alaska ranking in the top five. Four of the 50 metrornareas are also considered stable; San Antonio, Houston, Austin and New Orleans.rn</p

The most improved states</bmonth-over-month were Illinois, Nevada and Tennessee all tied at +0.12, andrnOhio, Rhode Island, and Texas were each up 0.09.  Compared to one year ago the most improvingrnstates remained unchanged: Florida (+1.73), Nevada (+1.52), Texas (+0.98),rnSouth Carolina (+0.95) and California (+0.89). </p

The areas most improved from thernprevious month were Las Vegas and Providence (+0.13), Buffalo (+0.12) andrnChicago (+0.11), while Houston, Memphis, Nashville and San Antonio all tied at +0.10.rn The most improving metros remainedrnunchanged from one year ago; Miami (+2.25), Orlando (+1.75), Las Vegas (+1.60),rnTampa (+1.46), and Riverside (+1.31). </p

Fourteen states and 21 metros showedrnan improving three month trend in April compared to 42 states and the Districtrnof Columbia and 44 metros which were improving on a three month timeline onernyear ago. </p

Freddie Mac Chief Economist FrankrnNothaft said, “With the latest release of MiMi we’re seeing very slowrnimprovement on the housing front with most markets still trying to move beyondrnstall speed. The MiMi indicators that are improving across the board show thernlocal jobs picture getting better and seriously delinquent rates continuing torncome down. Both indicators are critical to decreasing distress in localrnmarkets, but that’s also putting more pressure on markets with thinningrninventory, especially where short sales have fallen off dramatically. However,rnas you look at each of the individual markets MiMi tracks, they have their ownrnunique dynamics and show housing markets recovering at different paces.” </p

Deputy Chief Economist Len Kieferrncalled Texas a standout in the recent data with three of its cities making therntop five MiMi spots.  However, he saidrnSouth Carolina, Rhode Island, and Ohio have also done well since the first ofrnthis year.  “In fact, those metro areasrnthat are closest to joining the handful of markets that have already achievedrntheir stable range of housing activity are Pittsburgh and Oklahoma City, as isrnthe state of Oklahoma. And solid jobs gains, attractive mortgage rates and goodrnaffordability will help this trend spread to even more markets. However, incomerngrowth and greater inventory is just as important if we’re going to sustain anyrntype of meaningful housing recovery.”

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About the Author

devteam

Steven A Feinberg (@CPAsteve) of Appletree Business Services LLC, is a PASBA member accountant located in Londonderry, New Hampshire.

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