Home Prices Will Keep Rising, but Level-Off Soon

Homernprices continue to increase by double digit percentages on a year-over-yearrnbasis CoreLogic said today.  Therncompany’s Home Price Index (HPI) for February, an index that includesrndistressed sales, was up 12.2 percent compared to February 2013.  Thus February becomes the 24^{th</supconsecutive month in which there have been annual price increases.   Home prices nationwide, including distressedrnsales, increased by 0.8 percent in February compared to the previous month.</p}

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Including distressed sales,rnthe five states with the highest home price appreciation were California (+19.8rnpercent), Nevada (+18.5 percent), Georgia (+14.2 percent), Oregon (+13.8rnpercent) and Michigan (+13.5 percent). rnThere were no states with negative annual appreciation.</p

On its index which excludesrndistressed sales, national home prices were up 10.7 percent compared tornFebruary 2013 and 0.9 percent from January. <bAll 50 states and the District of Columbia showed annual increases with therngreatest appreciation in Californiarn(+15.9 percent), Nevada (+14.6 percent), Florida (+13.1 percent), Washingtonrn(+11.5 percent and Hawaii (+11.5 percent). rnAn additional nine states had double digit annual appreciation and Colorado, Nebraska, North Dakota, Texas and the Districtrnof Columbia all reached new home price highs. Additionally, 22 states were atrnor within 10 percent of their price peaks.</p

From the price peak in Aprilrn2006 to February the change in the national HPI was -16.9 percent includingrndistressed sales and 12.1 percent excluding them.  Thernfive states with the largest remaining peak-to-current declines, includingrndistressed transactions, were Nevada (-39.9 percent), Florida (-36.4 percent),rnRhode Island (-30.9 percent), Arizona (-30.5 percent) and West Virginia (-26.6rnpercent).</p

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Ninety-six of the top 100 CorernBased Statistical Areas (CBSAs) measured by population showed year-over-yearrnincreases in February 2014. The four exceptions were Little Rock-North LittlernRock-Conway, Ark., Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, Wis., Rochester, N.Y. and VirginiarnBeach-Norfolk-Newport News, Va.-N.C. </p

“February marks two straightrnyears of year-over-year gains in national prices across the United States,”rnsaid Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “The consistent upwardrnmovement in home prices should ultimately prove to be an important stimulantrnfor higher levels of sustained market activity and growth in the housingrneconomy.”</p

CoreLogic said today’srnreport introduces a new forecast metric that provides advanced indication ofrnhome price trends.  The current forecast isrnthat home prices are projected to increase 0.5 percent month over month fromrnFebruary 2014 to March 2014 and that home prices, including distressed sales, arernexpected to rise 10.5 percent year over year from March 2013 to March 2014.rnExcluding distressed sales, home prices are poised to rise 0.4 percent monthrnover month from February 2014 to March 2014 and 9.3 percent year over year fromrnMarch 2013 to March 2014. </p

“As the spring home-buyingrnseason kicks off, house price appreciation continues to be strong,” said Dr.rnMark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic. “Although prices should remainrnstrong in the near term due to a short supply of homes on the market, price increasesrnshould moderate over the next year as home equity releases pent-up supply.”</p

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