Architects Survey Forecasts Slowing Construction

The American Institute of Architectsrn(ABI) says that its leading indicator of construction activity, thernArchitecture Billings Index (ABI) contracted for the second month inrnDecember.  This is the first time sincernMay and June 2012 that the index has fallen in two consecutive months.  </p

The ABI indicates the approximate ninernto 12 month lead time between architectural billings and the resultingrnnon-residential construction expenditures. rnAIA said the December ABI score was 48.5, down from 49.8 in November, reflectingrna decrease in billing for design services. <bAny score above 50 indicates an increase in billing.  The new projects inquiry index was 59.2, an increasernfrom the November reading of 57.8.</p

“What we thought last month was anrnisolated dip now bears closer examination to see what is causing the slowdownrnin demand for architectural services,” said AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker,rnHon. AIA, PhD. “It is possible that some of this can be attributed to thernanxiety in the marketplace caused by the shutdown of the federal government,rnbut it will be important to see how business conditions fare through the firstrnquarter of the new year when we no longer have end of the year issues to dealrnwith.”</p

The Western region had a score of 53.2rnin December and the South 51.2, indicating an increase in billing.  The Midwest and the Northeast moved in thernopposite direction with scores of 47.0 and 42.8 respectively.  By sector the scores were, multi-familyrnresidential (53.8), mixed practice 51.0), commercial /industrial (47.1),rninstitutional (44.8).  The regional andrnsector categories are calculated as a 3-month moving average, whereas the indexrnand inquiries are monthly numbers.</p

Participants in the AIA survey are asked whether their billings increased,rndecreased, or stayed the same in the month that just ended as compared to thernprior month, and the results are then compiled into the ABI. These monthlyrnresults are also seasonally adjusted to allow for comparison to prior months.

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