Home Price Gains Continue to Slow

CoreLogic said today that month-over-monthrnincreases in home prices slowed to fractional numbers in October even asrnyear-over-year increases continued for the 20^th consecutivernmonth.  The company’s Home Price Indexrn(HPI) which includes both equity and distressed sales was up 0.2 percent fromrnSeptember to October and was 12.5 percent higher than one year earlier. </p

Increases in the HPI peaked in Aprilrnwhen prices rose 2.68 percent on a month-over-month basis.  The increases have slowed every monthrnsince.  The increase from July to August wasrn0.67 percent and from August to September 0.5 percent.  </p

CoreLogic’s HPI which excludesrndistressed sales increased by 0.4 percent in October and by 11.0 percentrncompared to October 2012.  Distressedrnsales include short sales and sales of lender-owned (REO) property </p

Nine states had annual pricernincreases (including distressed sales) that exceeded the national HPI.  Nevada continued to lead with the largestrnincrease at 25.9 percent followed by California (22.4 percent,) Georgia (14.2rnpercent,) Michigan (14.1 percent,) and Arizona (14.0 percent.)  New Mexico was the only state where this HPIrndepreciated from one year ago, declining by a half percent.</p

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The HPI excluding distressed salesrnincreased across all states with eleven having increases above the nationalrnaverage. Nevada and California were also number one and two on this scale withrnincreases of 22.5 percent and 18.5 percent respectively.  Utah’s HPI increased by 13.3 percent, Florida’srnby 13 percent, and New York by 12.4 percent. </p

The HPI including distressedrntransactions is now 17.3 percent below the peak reached in April 2006, and thernHPI excluding distressed sales is 13.1 percent lower.   Thernfive states which are still posting the largest declines from their respective peaksrnare, in declining order, Nevada, Florida, Arizona, Rhode Island, and WestrnVirginia.  The changes range from -40.7rnpercent to -28 percent</p

Ninety-six of the top 100 Core BasedrnStatistical Areas (CBSAs) measured by population showed year-over-yearrnincreases in October 2013.  Five CBSAs exceededrnthe national average increase; Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario (+24.1rnpercent), Los Angeles (22.1 percent), Atlanta (16.4 percent), Phoenix (15.9rnpercent), and Chicago (12.3 percent).</p

Prices are expected to remainrnessentially unchanged in November according to CoreLogic’s Pending HPI.  The index, based on Multiple Listing ServicernData, indicates that prices including distressed sales will remain at Octoberrnlevels while the November index is expected to show double digit growth, 12.2rnpercent, year-over year.  When distressedrnsales are excluded the November HPI will increase 0.4 percent from October andrn11.3 percent compared to October 2012. </p

“In October, the year-over-yearrnappreciation rate remained strong, but the month-over-month appreciation raternwas barely positive, indicating that house price appreciation has slowed asrnexpected for the winter,” said Dr. Mark Fleming, chief economist forrnCoreLogic. “Based on our pending HPI, the monthly growth rate is expectedrnto moderate even further in November and December. The slowdown in pricernappreciation is positive for the housing market as almost half the states arernnow within 10 percent of their respective historical price peaks.”</p

“In terms of home pricernappreciation, the housing market appears to be catching its breath as we headrninto the final months of 2013,” said Anand Nallathambi, president and CEOrnof CoreLogic. “The deceleration in month-on-month trends was anticipatedrnas strong gains in home prices over the spring and summer slow in line withrnnormal seasonal patterns and the impact of higher mortgage interestrnrates.”

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