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Home Price Gains Decelerating for Most Metro Areas -Case-Shiller

by devteam August 27th, 2013 | Share

The growth in home prices nationallyrnaccelerated in the second quarter.  ThernS&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, which covers all nine U.S. census divisionsrnrose 7.1 percent</bduring the quarter compared to an increase of 10.1 percent over the last fourrnquarters.  Both the 10-City CompositernIndex and the 12-City were up 2.2 percent in June compared to May and thern10-City posted a return of 11.9 percent for the 12 month period ending in June;rnthe 20-City rose 12.1 percent.</p

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Home price appreciation, however, may be slowing in somernquarters.  While all 20 cities postedrngains on a monthly and annual basis the month-over-month June price hike wasrnlarger in only six cities compared to ten in May.   </p

“Nationalrnhome prices rose more than 10% annually in each of the last two quarters,” David M. Blitzer,rnChairman of the Index Committeernat S&P Dow Jones Indicesrnsaid. “However, the monthly city by city datarnshow the pace ofrnprice increases is moderating.</p

“The Southwest and California have consistently led the recovery,”rnBlizer said, “with Las Vegas,rnLos Angeles, Phoenix and San Franciscornposting at least 15 months of gains. Lookingrnat the cities,rnNew York recorded its highest monthly return since 2002. Atlanta was up the most at +3.4% and Washington DC had the lowest return at +1.0%. In terms of annualrnrates of change,rnSan Francisco lost its leadership positionrnwith Las Vegas showingrnthe highest post-recessionrngain of 24.9%.</p

“Thirteen out of twenty cities saw their returns weaken from May to June.rnAs we are in the middle of a seasonal buying period, wernshould expect to see the most gains. With interestrnrates rising to almost 4.6%,rnhome buyers may berndiscouraged and sharp increasesrnmayrnbe dampened,” Blizer said.</p

Otherrnhousing news, while positive, is less so than a year ago, he pointed out.  Housing starts and new home sales are runningrnbehind the stronger pace of existing home sales but despite the recentrnincreases in interest rates homes remain affordable and credit requirementsrnhave eased somewhat.  </p

The National Home Price Index, which isrnreleased quarterly, shows that home prices across the country are, on average,rnback to early 2004 levels.  The 10-Cityrnand 20-City Composite indices are also back to spring 2004 price levels and thernpeak to current decline is approximately 23 percent.  The two indices peaked in June and July ofrn2006 and since hitting their troughs in March 2012 have recovered 18.4 percentrnand 29.0 percent respectively.  </p

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While all 20 cities covered by the indices have shown price increasesrnfor at least three consecutive months the only ones to see their prices climbrnmore quickly in June than in May were Charlotte, Cleveland, Las Vegas,rnMinneapolis, New York, and Tampa.  Atlanta had the largest monthly price increase,rn3.4 percent, the same increase as in May. rnSan Francisco dropped to +2.7% in June from +4.3% in May. Dallas and Denver reachedrnnew all-time highs for the second time in as many months withrnreturns of +1.7% each in June. San Francisco’s rebound is the largest,rnup 47.0% from its low in March 2009. Phoenix is second, 37.1% above its Septemberrn2011 low.</p

Year-over-year,rnLas Vegas and San Francisco were the only two cities tornpost gains of over 20%.  Gainsrnin Atlanta, Detroit and Phoenix slippedrnto +19.0%, +16.4% and +19.8%, respectively. Seven cities – Dallas,rnLas Vegas, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, San Diego and Tampa – showed improvement in their annual rates.rnOut of the 13 remaining metropolitan areas, Detroitrnshowed the most deceleration but it still posted an impressive 16.4% increase. Despite gaining 35.6%rnfrom its post-recession low in April 2011, Detroit remains the only city below itsrnJanuary 2000 level.

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About the Author

devteam

Steven A Feinberg (@CPAsteve) of Appletree Business Services LLC, is a PASBA member accountant located in Londonderry, New Hampshire.

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