Looking forward the new projections arernalso more restrained.  The originalrnestimate of a 17.3 percent moving average increase in the first quarter is nowrn14.0 percent and 16.2 percent in Q2 has become 14.7 percent.   By thernend of the second quarter LIRA estimates home improvement spending at $147.6rnbillion before growth moderates to a moving average of 9.9 percent in Q3.</p

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“The ongoing growth that we’ve seenrnin home prices, housing starts, and existing home sales is also being reflectedrnin home improvement activity,” says Eric S. Belsky, managing director of thernJoint Center.  “As owners gain more confidence in the housing market, theyrnare likely to undertake home improvements that they have deferred.” </p

“However, the strong growth for thisrncycle may start to ebb a bit beginning around midyear,” says Kermit Baker,rndirector of the Remodeling Futures Program at the Joint Center.  “By thatrntime, we’ll be approaching the pre-recessionary levels of spending, and withrnborrowing costs starting to creep back up, growth rates are likely to slowrnsome.” </p

LIRA is designedrnto estimate national homeowner spending on improvements for the current quarterrnand subsequent three quarters. The indicator, measured as an annualrnrate-of-change of its components, provides a short-term outlook of homeownerrnremodeling activity and is intended to help identify future turning points inrnthe business cycle of the home improvement industry.

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