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NAHB Replaces Improving Markets Index; Smaller Metros Lead

by devteam October 7th, 2013 | Share

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and FirstrnAmerican Title Insurance Company today unveiled a new measure of housing marketrnhealth, their Leading Markets Index (LMI). rnThe LMI will replace the Improving Markets measure that NAHB and FirstrnAmerican have used to measure the recovery of the housing market since the 2007rndownturn.</p

The new and the old index both were based on threernindicators of economic activity; Bureau of Labor Statistics employment data,rnFreddie Mac information on home prices, and U.S. Census counts of single-familyrnhousing permits.   However, where the earlier index sought to identifyrnmarkets that had recently begun to recover from the recession the LMI willrnfocus on those areas that are now approaching and exceeding their previousrnnormal levels of activity.  </p

The LMI will look at more than 350 metropolitan areas,rnscoring each by taking their average permit, price, and employment numbers forrnthe past 12 months and divided these by the areas annual average over the lastrnperiod of normal growth.  In the case of bothrnsingle-family housing permits and home prices that would be 2000-2003.  For employment 2007 is the base of comparison.   The three components are then averaged tornprovide an overall score for each market. rnA national score is calculated based on national measures of the threernmetrics.  An index value above one</bindicates that a market has advanced beyond its previous normal level of economicrnactivity.</p

“This index helps illustrate how far the U.S. housingrnrecovery has come, and also how much further it has to go as we continue tornface some significant headwinds in terms of credit availability, rising costsrnfor lots and labor, and uncertainties regarding Washington policymaking,”rnsaid NAHB Chairman Rick Judson.</p

This month the LMI found that housing markets in 52 metrornareas have now returned to or exceeded their pre-recession levels ofrnactivity.  The index’s nationwide scorernof .85 indicates that, based on current permits, prices and employment data,rnthe nationwide housing market is running at 85 percent of normal activity.<br /<br /Baton Rouge, Louisiana tops the list of major metros on the LMI, with a scorernof 1.41 – or 41 percent better than its last normal market level. Other majorrnmetros at the top of the list include Honolulu, Oklahoma City, Austin andrnHouston, Texas, as well as Harrisburg, Pennsylvania – all of whose LMI scoresrnindicate that their housing markets now exceed previous norms.<br /<br /Looking at smaller metros, both Odessa and Midland, Texas, boast LMI scores ofrn2.0 or better, meaning that their housing markets are now at double theirrnstrength prior to the recession. Also at the top of the list of smaller metrosrnare Casper, Wyoming; Bismarck, North Dakota; and Florence, Alabama,rnrespectively.<br /<br /"Smaller metros are leading the way to a housing recovery, accounting forrn43 of the top 50 markets on the current LMI,” observed NAHB ChiefrnEconomist David Crowe. “This is very much in keeping with the results ofrnour previous index for improving markets, and is an indication of the extent tornwhich local economic conditions dictate the strength of individual housingrnmarkets.”<br /<br /Kurt Pfotenhauer, vice chairman of First American pointed out that in 118rnmetros their housing markets show activity levels of at least 90 percent ofrntheir previous norms, "A very encouraging sign of things to come," he said.

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About the Author

devteam

Steven A Feinberg (@CPAsteve) of Appletree Business Services LLC, is a PASBA member accountant located in Londonderry, New Hampshire.

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