Pending Home Sales Highest Since 2010 Tax Credit Expiration

by devteam December 28th, 2012 | Share

The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) Pending Home Sales Index</breached the highest level seen in two and a half years in November afterrnposting its third consecutive monthly increase. rnThe previous recent high was in April 2010 when buyers were rushing to qualifyrnfor the homebuyers’ tax credit.</p

The PHSI rose to 106.4 in November, a 1.7 percent increase over the Octoberrnnumber which was revised down slightly to 104.6 from the 104.8 originallyrnreported.  The November index was 9.8rnpercent above the index of 96.9 in November 2011.</p

The PHSI is a forward looking indicator of home sales based on contractrnsignings.  Home sales are typically completedrnwithin one to two months of contract signings. rn</p

Lawrence Yun,rnNAR chief economist, said home sales are on a sustained uptrend.  “Even with market frictions related to thernmortgage process, home contract activity continues to improve.  Home sales are recovering now based solely onrnfundamental demand and favorable affordability conditions.”</p

NAR’s press release noted thatrnpending home sales have increased over the previous year’s level for 19rnconsecutive months.  “The upwardrnmomentum means existing-home sales should rise 8 to 9 percent in 2013 tornapproximately 5.1 million, following a 10 percent gain expected for all ofrn2012.  The median existing-home price isrnprojected to rise just over 4 percent in 2013, after rising more than 7 percentrnin 2012.”</p

On a regional basis the Indexrnrose 5.2 percent in the Northeast to 83.3 and is 15.2 percent above a yearrnago.  In the Midwest the index edged uprn0.1 percent to 103.8 in November and is 15.2 percent above November 2011.  Pending home sales in the South were unchangedrnat an index of 117.2 in November and are 13.9 percent higher than a year ago.  In the West the index rose 4.2 percent inrnNovember to 110.1, but is 3.2 percent below November 2011 with inventoryrnconstraints limiting sales.</p

The Pending Home Sale Index isrnbased on a large national sample, typically representing about 20 percent ofrntransactions for existing-home sales. An index of 100 is equal to the averagernlevel of contract activity during 2001, which was the first year to bernexamined. 

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About the Author


Steven A Feinberg (@CPAsteve) of Appletree Business Services LLC, is a PASBA member accountant located in Londonderry, New Hampshire.

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