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Pending Sales: Another Indication of Cooling California Boom

by devteam September 24th, 2013 | Share

Likernclosed sales which were reported last week, pending real estate sales inrnCalifornia dropped in August while distressed home sales were down to levels lastrnseen six years ago the California Association of Realtors® (C.A.R.) said today.  C.A.R. said rising mortgage rates werernresponsible for the drop in the Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) which fell 5</bpercent in August. </p

ThernIndex was at 114 in July.  In August itrnfell to 108.3 which was also 8.9 percent below the index recorded in Augustrn2012.  Pending sales are a forwardrnlooking indicator of future home sales activity based on signed home purchaserncontracts.   Last week C.A.R. said closed sales in Augustrnhad fallen to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 434,700 units, a 2 percentrndecrease from July.  </p

“Rising interest rates over the pastrnseveral months at the specter of a tapering of the Fed’s stimulus program sentrnbuyers to the sidelines in August,” said C.A.R. Vice President and ChiefrnEconomist Leslie Appleton-Young.  “However, the Fed’s decision last weekrnto postpone the  pullback should lead tornlower interest rates, which bodes well for prospective buyers.” </p

Non-distressed or equity propertyrnsales have risen on a month-to-month basis for 18 of the last 19 months C.A.R.rnsaid and now account for more than four in five sales, the highest share sincernNovember 2007.  Equity sales rose fromrn82.9 percent of all residential sales in July to 84.7 percent in August.  One year earlier equity sales made up 62rnpercent of the total.</p

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Twenty-five of the 38 countiesrnreporting to C.A.R. reported distressed sales down in August and some of thernlargest counties – San Diego, San Mateo, Alameda, Orange, and others – reportedrndistressed sales in the single digits.  </p

Short sales fell to 10.2 percent ofrnall sales, the lowest point since February 2009 and were less than half what theyrnwere in August 2012.  C.A.R. said therncontinuing decline in short sales indicates more previously underwater homesrnare now selling at a high enough price to cover the mortgage.</p

The share of REO sales alsorncontinued to fall and was in single-digits for the fifth straight month.  Bank owned property accounted for 4.7 percentrnof sales in August compared to 5 percent in July and 14.7 percent in Augustrn2012.  </p

Housing inventory levels improved</bfurther in August but remained in short supply.  The Unsold InventoryrnIndex for equity sales inched up from 3 months in July to 3.1 months in August.rn The supply of REOs edged up from 2.1 months in July to 2.3 months inrnAugust, and the supply of short sales rose from 2.5 months in July to 2.9rnmonths in August.</p

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About the Author

devteam

Steven A Feinberg (@CPAsteve) of Appletree Business Services LLC, is a PASBA member accountant located in Londonderry, New Hampshire.

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