Substantial Increase in Mortgage Origination Forecasts -MBA

Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) economists joined in thernrecent surge of housing optimism Wednesday, increasing their projections for mortgagernoriginations both this year and next. rnSaying that the housing market recovery has shifted to a higher gear, theyrnnow project that purchase mortgage originations will reach $801 billion in 2015rnand $885 billion in 2016.  The newrnnumbers are an increase of $71 billion this year and $94 billion next year over theirrnprevious projections.</p

Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s Chief Economist, and seniorrneconomists Lynn Fisher and Joel Kan said they had also revised upward theirrnestimates and forecasts for home sales and home prices while revising down estimatesrnof cash transactions.  All of these pointrnto higher purchase originations. </p

More sales are being financed, and morernapplications are being approved the economists said, and this trend is expectedrnto continue into 2016 and beyond, as the broader economy and job marketrncontinue to improve.  The expectation is that the stronger job market andrnsomewhat higher levels of inflation will lead the Fed to hike in September, andrnthat mortgage rates will hit 4.5 percent by the end of the year.  “However,rnthe positive of the stronger job market will outweigh any negative of somewhatrnhigher mortgage rates” the report says.</p

Refinancing volume however will continue to trendrndown in response to increasing interest rates. rnMBA’s forecasts for refinance mortgage originations remains, as lastrnmonth, at $551 billion in 2015, compared to $484 billion in 2014. As a result,rntotal originations are expected to be $1.35 trillion in 2015 and $1.26 trillionrnin 2016, compared to $1.12 trillion in 2014.

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