Supply/Demand Pushing Home Prices Higher

Nationwidernhome prices are now within 10 percent of their pre-crash peaks and seven statesrnhave surpassed those peaks, some have been establishing new high marks forrnseveral months.  CoreLogic said today thatrnits Home Price Index (HPI) that tracks that home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, rose inrnMarch for the 37^th consecutive month on a year-over-year basis.</p

The HPI was up 5.9 percentrnin March 2015 compared with March 2014 arn+2 percent change from the year over-year HPI increase in February.  The March HPI was also up 2 percent comparedrnto the previous month.</p

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The states with the greatestrnincrease in its HPI including distressed sales were: Colorado (+9.2 percent),rnSouth Carolina (+9.1 percent), Kansas (+8 percent), Texas (+8 percent) andrnNevada (+7.6 percent).  Two states andrnthe District of Columbia experienced home price depreciation; Connecticut wasrndown 0.6 percent, the District of Columbia decreased 0.2 percent and Marylandrnwas off 0.1 percent.   </p

Excluding distressedrnsales, home prices increased by 6.1 percent in March 2015 compared with March 2014rnand increased by 2 percent month over month compared with February 2015.  The five statesrnwith the highest home price appreciation were: Kansas (+9.5 percent), Coloradorn(+8.5 percent), South Carolina (+8.2 percent), Florida (+7.9 percent) and Texasrn(+7.6 percent).  Only New Mexico (-0.4 percent) showed year-over-year depreciation on thernHPI excluding distressed sales which include short sales and real estate-ownedrn(REO) transactions.</p

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“The homes for sale inventory continues to be limited whilernbuyer demand has picked up with low mortgage rates and improving consumerrnconfidence,” said Frank Nothaft, chief economist for CoreLogic. “As a result,rnthere has been continued upward pressure on prices in most markets, with ourrnnational monthly index up 2 percent for March 2015 and up approximately 6rnpercent from a year ago.”</p

CoreLogic projects that itsrnHPI including distressed sales will increase by 0.8 percent from March to Aprilrn2015 and by 5.1 percent from March 2015 to March 2016.  For the HPI excluding distressed sales thernmonthly increase is predicted at 0.7 percent and the annual increase from Marchrn2015 to March 2016 at 4.7 percent.  </p

“All signs are pointing toward continuedrnprice appreciation throughout 2015. In fact, the strong month-over-month gainrnin March may be a harbinger of accelerating price appreciation as we enter thernspring selling season,” said Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic.rn”Tight inventories, job growth and the inexorable impact of demographics andrnhousehold formation are pushing price levels in many states, and especiallyrnlarge metropolitan areas like Dallas, Denver, Houston, Seattle and SanrnFrancisco, toward record levels.”</p

Including distressedrntransactions, the peak-to-current change in the national HPI (from April 2006rnto March 2015) was -11 percent. Excluding distressed transactions, thernpeak-to-current change for the same period was -6.7 percent.  The peak-to-currentrndeclines were greatest in Nevada (-34.7 percent), Florida (-31.5 percent),rnRhode Island (-29 percent), Arizona (-27.4 percent) and Connecticut (-25.5rnpercent).</p

Ninety of the top 100rnCore Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) measured by population showedrnyear-over-year increases in March 2015. The 10 exceptions were the metropolitanrnareas that contain Baltimore,  Philadelphia,rnCamden, New  Jersey;  Hartford, New Orleans, Rochester, Worcester, Massachusetts;rnAlbany, New Haven, and Wilmington, Delaware. rn</p<p

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