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Weak Year-end Home Values Increase Underwater Numbers

by devteam March 19th, 2015 | Share

Even though the number of underwaterrnhomes increased seasonally in the fourth quarter of 2014, CoreLogic reportsrnthat 1.2 million borrowers regained equity in their homes during the year.  At year’s end approximately 44.5 millionrnhomeowners or 89 percent of those with a mortgage had some equity in theirrnhomes compared to 6.6 million homes, or 13.4 percent, reported for Q4 2013.  The 1.2 million decrease in the numbersrnrepresents a change of -18.9 percent.  Borrowerrnequity increased during the year by $656 billion.</p

From Quarter 3 to Quarter 4rnapproximately 172,000 homes slipped from positive to negative equity bringingrnthe total number of mortgaged homes that were underwater to 5.4 million or 10.8rnpercent of the total.  This was anrnincrease of 3.3 percent from the 5.2 million homes or 10.8 percent of mortgagedrnproperty that lacked equity in the third quarter.  </p

Frank Nothaft, CoreLogic’s ChiefrnEconomist said, “The share of home owners that had negative equity</bincreased slightly in the fourth quarter of 2014, reflecting the typicalrnweakness in home values during the final quarter of the year.  Our CoreLogic HPI dipped 0.7 percent fromrnSeptember to December, and the percent of owners 'underwater' increased to 10.8rnpercent. However, from December-to-December, the CoreLogic index was up 4.8 percent,rnand the negative equity share fell by 2.6 percentage points."</p

Across the universe of underwater homesrnthe national aggregate value of negative equity was put at $348.8 billion atrnthe end of the fourth quarter, an increase of approximately $7 billion fromrn$341.8 billion in Quarter 3.  On arnyear-over- year basis, however, the value of negative equity declined overallrnfrom $403 billion in Q4 2013, representing a decrease of 13.4 percent in 12rnmonths.</p

Of those homes in positive territory anrnestimated 10 million, or 20 percent, have less than 20-percent equity (referredrnto as “under-equitied”) and 1.4 million of those have less thanrn5-percent equity (referred to as near-negative equity). Borrowers who arern”under-equitied” may have a more difficult time refinancing theirrnexisting homes or obtaining new financing to sell and buy another home due tornunderwriting constraints. Borrowers with near-negative equity are at risk of fallingrninto negative equity if home prices decrease.  In contrast, if home prices rose by as littlernas 5 percent, an additional 1 million home owners now in negative equity wouldrnregain equity. </p

“Negative equity continued to be arnserious issue for the housing market and the U.S. economy at the end of 2014rnwith 5.4 million homeowners still ‘underwater’,” said Anand Nallathambi, presidentrnand CEO of CoreLogic. “We expect the situation to improve over the coursernof 2015. We project that the CoreLogic Home Price Index will rise 5 percent inrn2015, which will lift about 1 million homeowners out of negative equity.”</p

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The highestrnpercentage of negative equity continues to be in Nevada at 24.2 percent of allrnmortgaged properties followed by Floridarn(23.2 percent); Arizona (18.7 percent); Illinois (16.2 percent) and RhodernIsland (15.8 percent). These top five states combined account for 31.7 percentrnof negative equity in the United States. rnTexas had the highest share of homes with equity at 97.2 percent closelyrnfollowed by Montana at 97.0 percent.  Otherrnstates with high levels were Alaska (97.2 percent), Hawaii (96.3 percent) and North Dakotarn(96.2 percent).</p

The bulk of home equity among mortgagedrnproperties is concentrated at the high end of the housing market. For example,rn94 percent of homes valued at greater than $200,000 have equity compared withrn84 percent of homes valued at less than $200,000.</p

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Approximately 3.2 million underwaterrnborrowers hold first liens without home equity loans.  They account for $185 billion of the $349rnbillion in negative equity.  The averagernmortgage balance for this group of borrowers is $228,000 and their averagernunderwater amount is $57,000.  Approximatelyrn2.1 million underwater borrowers hold both first and second liens accountingrnfor $164 billion, or 47 percent of the total. rnThe average mortgage balance for this group of borrowers is $295,000 andrnthey are underwater an average of $77,000.

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About the Author

devteam

Steven A Feinberg (@CPAsteve) of Appletree Business Services LLC, is a PASBA member accountant located in Londonderry, New Hampshire.

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